Aujourd'hui le 2 avril,

• Maïs: +11 à 655 sur mai 2012 et +4 3/4 à 545 sur décembre 2012
• Soja : +18 à 1421 sur mai 2012 et +27 1/4 à 1385 1/4 sur novembre 2012
• Tourteau : +2.50 à 391.20 sur mai 2012 et +6.70 à 376.00 sur décembre 2012
• Porc : +1.300 à 84.725 sur avril 2012 et +1.150 à 92.300 sur août 2012
• Bœuf : +0.400 à 120.850 sur avril 2012 et +0.575 à 120.250 sur août 2012
• CAD : inchangé à 100.95 sur juin 2012

Les prix des grains ont continué sur leur lancer de vendredi dernier, suite aux rapports de l'USDA. Rappelons-le, les intentions d'ensemencement sont plus élevées que prévue dans le maïs, à 95.9 millions d'acres, tandis que les données étaient plus faibles dans le soya et le blé, à 73.9 et 55.9 millions respectivement. Pour les inventaires, la situation s'établissait dans le bas des estimés pour le maïs et le blé, alors que le résultat était tel qu'attendu pour le soya. Concernant le maïs, avec plus de superficie et peu d'inventaire, on peut constater l'espacement entre les prix de l'ancienne récolte et la nouvelle. Avant le rapport, le maïs de juillet 2012 se vendait 80¢ le boisseau de plus que celui de décembre 2012. Cette différence a littéralement explosée depuis vendredi, atteignant 1.10 $ durant les sommets de la journée. Un fait qu'on ne doit pas oublier est la quantité limitée de semences disponibles à travers l'Amérique. Si jamais un évènement métrologique vient gâcher les semis, la superficie dédiée au blé d'inde ne sera peut-être pas si élevée. De plus, depuis les trente dernières années, un changement entre le rapport des intentions d'ensemencement de mars et juin arrive fréquemment. Cette correction (positive ou négative) se tient en moyenne au tour d'un million d'acres, tant pour le maïs que pour le soya, mais a déjà atteint à quelques reprises 2 et 3 millions d'acres.

Dans la viande, les prix ont rebondi après la chute de la semaine dernière. Avec des prix plus faibles, tant dans le bœuf que dans le porc, une nouvelle demande est éveillée. Par ailleurs, le prix cash du porc se contracte depuis la semaine dernière, maintenant à 83.28¢ ce qui correspond au niveau de janvier dernier et en-dessous des prix de 2011 à pareille date.

(See attached file: Lettre sur l'agriculture.pdf)

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US cattle, hogs rally on seasonal demand, value buying
2 avril 2012 16:58:54 (GMT-04:00)
Provided by: Reuters News

By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, April 2 (Reuters) - U.S. cattle futures rebounded on Monday from a nearly 2-1/2 month low on an expected seasonal bounce in cattle and beef prices and as last week's steep decline attracted renewed demand. Lean hog futures staged their strongest rally in more than a month, also recovering from last week's plunge to the lowest point since mid-January, on seasonally improving demand as warmer weather ushers in increased outdoor grilling. "A lot of people started thinking about what is going to happen in the next couple of weeks rather than what's happened lately. Both beef and pork prices tend to rally on a seasonal basis in the first half of April," said Dan Vaught with Vaught Futures Insights. "The industry is anticipating seasonal strength from this point, particularly after the breakdown we had seen, which sets the stage for improved buying," he said.
The market appeared to shrug off, at least for the day, worries that beef demand would suffer from recent negative publicity tied to the meat filler dubbed by critics as "pink slime." Last week, the issue pressured the market, and front-month futures posted their largest weekly percentage drop since July 2011, pulling spot futures well below cash market prices. Bids and offers for fed cattle in the cash market were not well established on Monday after southern Plains cattle traded at $124 to $125 per cwt last week. Prices were expected to ease slightly from those levels this week.
Wholesale choice beef prices rose on Monday for the first time in 11 days, gaining 73 cents to $184.10 per cwt on sales of 174 loads. April live cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose 0.400 cent, or 0.33 percent, to settle at 120.850 cents per lb. June cattle climbed 0.650 cent, or 0.56 percent, to 116.800 cents. CME April feeder cattle rose 0.700 cent, or 0.47 percent, to 149.525 cents per lb. Feeders remained supported by tight supplies of the animals, shrugging off pressure from rising corn prices.
HOGS HIGHER
Lean hog futures staged their strongest rally since late February on expectations for seasonally improved demand for pork and following a government hog and pig inventory report on Friday that was seen as mildly supportive to futures. The government released its quarterly hog report Friday afternoon showing the U.S. hog herd up 2 percent from the previous year. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the report to show 1.7 percent expansion in the hog herd. Wholesale pork prices slipped 2 cents on Monday to $79.95 per cwt, but were up 13 cents from a week ago. Actively traded April hogs ended up 1.300 cents, or 1.56 percent, at 84.725 cents a lb and June hogs rose 1.775 cents, or 1.96 percent, to 92.175 cents.

GRAINS-Soy rises for second day, led by new-crop strength
2 avril 2012 15:26:00 (GMT-04:00)
Provided by: Reuters News

By Mark Weinraub
CHICAGO, April 2 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures rallied for the second day in a row o n M onday, hitting a seven-month high on follow-through buying from a government report that pegged lower-than-expected soybean acreage this year, traders said. The soybean market has gained 4.8 percent over the past two trading sessions after the U.S. Agriculture Department's prospective plantings report early Friday raised concerns about the possibility of tight soybean supplies during the next year.
Corn futures also rose, with the buying in old-crop months out pacing new-crop contracts due to fears that exporters, ethanol refiners and livestock producers will struggle to find supplies in the next few months. Expectations that farmers will plant a huge number of corn acres this spring limited the gains in new-crop futures. "The bull numbers from the report were old corn and new beans and that is what is leading us," said Chad Henderson, grain market advisor with Prime Agricultural Consultants. The expected drop in U.S. soybean acreage comes after hot and dry weather in South America curtailed harvest from key production areas. "You not only have a compromised crop out of Argentina to deal with but all of a sudden you are talking about these acres being down (in the United States)," said Jason Britt, analyst with Central States Commodities. "You are not really growing these carryouts. There is just not much room for error here."
CBOT May soybeans settled up 18 cents at $14.21 a bushel. Prices peaked at $14.33 a bushel, their highest level since hitting $14.41-3/4 a bushel on Sept. 2, 2011. New-crop November soybeans rose 27-1/4 cents to $13.85-1/4 a bushel.
CBOT May corn was up 11 cents at $6.55 a bushel while the new crop December contract was 4-3/4 cents higher at $5.45 a bushel. May corn hit its highest level in nearly two weeks. "You have got a tale of two crops now on corn," said Dewey Strickler, president of AgWatch Market Advisors. "You have got one with tight stocks, with the old crop, and one with what looks like an abundance of stocks with the new crop."
CBOT May wheat fell 3-3/4 cents at $6.57 a bushel.
Good weather for crop development in key growing areas of the U.S. Midwest boosted prospects for a robust harvest adding to already plentiful wheat supplies. The USDA predicted farmers in the world's top soybean producer, the United States, would plant 2 percent less acreage to the oilseed than expected.
That suggested supplies would tighten further after poor harvests due to drought in Brazil and Argentina, the world's second- and third-largest soy producers, which have driven soy prices this year. In its quarterly stocks report, the USDA's tally of corn stocks was also below expectations and the lowest in five years, although farmers were set to sow more land to corn than they had since 1937.
Financial markets in general drew support on Monday from surprisingly strong Chinese factory activity data which eased fears of a hard landing in the world's No. 2 economy. A weaker U.S. dollar helped agricultural commodities priced in greenbacks by making them cheaper on world markets, a factor which helped U.S. exporters win business last week from Egypt, the world's biggest wheat buyer.

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Fichier lié : Lettre sur l'agriculture.pdf