Today’s Authors:

MK         Matt Kayl

PC          Phillip Claussen

RM         Ryan Moe

MC         Megan Cantwell

MP         Mitch Polzin

AG         Alex Gokey 

Outside Markets:  DJIA +121.24, S&P 500 +21.50, NASDAQ -15.41, US$ Index +0.31, WTI Crude +3.67 (MP)

• A group of investors led by Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management has offered $1.4 billion to buy Wendy’s, according to a regulatory filing Wednesday
• The take-private deal offer comes after a tough two-year stretch for the burger chain
• The group has offered $7.35 per share in cash to take the burger chain private, paying a 20% premium to Tuesday’s closing price
• Wendy’s shares spiked about 15% in morning trading following the offer
• Wendy’s stock has tumbled 65% over this two-year stretch, including Wednesday’s gains
• For six straight quarters, the company has reported same-store sales declines
• All I’m going to say is, if the new owners ruin the chili recipe, Ryan Moe will be pissed for next year’s fishing trip
• 
• • Stellantis stock rises 12% as automaker’s turnaround plan
  • Stellantis saw a $4.5 billion cash drain in the third quarter while revenues and operating profit rose
  • The company has been in the midst of a $70 billion turnaround strategy to restore profitability
  • The automaker’s industrial free cash flow improved to negative 4 billion euros, up from negative 4.3 billion the year prior
  • Third-quarter revenues rose 1% to 37.6 billion euros from a year ago
  • Adjusted operating income rose 184% to 256 million euros from 90 million euros a year earlier
  • Sounds like Stellantis took a page out of the Patches O’Houlihan playbook
  • 
  • • Budget Airline no more
    • Frontier Airlines reported a 71% increase in airfare for the third quarter
    • The budget airline posted a loss in the third quarter as fuel costs continue to bite
    • Frontier stock jumped after it forecasted potential adjusted earnings in the fourth quarter
    • Frontier’s fare revenue averaged $67.82 per passenger in the third quarter, compared with $39.74 last year
    • Including the budget airline’s many fees, such as fees for checked and carry-on luggage, total revenue per passenger rose 30% on the year to $138.22
    • Customers kept booking despite the higher prices. Frontier’s passenger count rose 18% to more than 9.8 million people in the quarter
    • So… not only is it 3 times more expensive as before, but you still get the comfort of the interior ride and a cardboard box to sit on
    • 

    • Corn:  CZ26 +3.00¢, CH27 +2.50¢, CK27 +1.50¢, CN27 +1.25¢ (MK)

      
      • Kind of a quiet morning for corn yet again
      • We had a slightly higher overnight session with CZ handing above $4.50
      • Looks like the market is continuing to be weighed down as the harvest goes on
      • Here’s what December is looking like so far
  • • December - May spread gained some momentum this morning
    • Started out with traders trying to push it lower, but gained steam and now we are hovering between the -21 and -22 ½ range
    • 
    • 
  • • Let’s take a look at some crop progress numbers
    • The harvest is a bit delayed as most farmers are focusing on getting their beans out of the fields as quick as they can
    • The major western belt states are lagging behind for the most part, with Iowa surprisingly (but not at the same time) bringing up the rear
    • The other two “I-States” are among the group that are ahead of schedule, as it’s a little bit drier out east
    • There are some expected rain showers across most of the western belt over the next couple of days, but I don’t think it will hinder the harvest for too long
    • All I really care about is that Nebraska is beating Iowa in something (for once…)
  • 

  • Soybeans: SX26 +0.50¢, SF27 +0.25¢. SH27 -0.25, SK27 -0.25(MC)

    • Dancing around unchanged as we move through the morning- basically going from a penny up to a penny down for the last few hours
    • SX got up to 1237^6 earlier this morning, but we are back at 1229, just above session low at 1228
    • Overnight trade was spotty as we approach FND for those Nov contracts
    • Speaking of… please make sure you are getting out of any longs before tomorrow’s close
    • And also… really try and draw down those shorts before that liquidity dries up
    • 
    • • We did have another flash sale this morning of 120k tons of beans to unknown
    • 
    • • So is this the time to mention I think of this song every time I write about sales to unknown….
      • 
    • • SX:SF is working a smidge wider than we were yesterday, bouncing down to -13^4 as we get ever closer to FND
    • • F/H spread on the other hand has a contract low of -10^6 and we are at -8^2 this morning   which I s around where we have been for the last couple weeks
      • We only hit that contract low earlier this month
      • 

    • Wheat: MWZ26 -7.00¢, KWZ26 -7.00¢, WZ26 -11.00¢, OZ26 -3.50¢ (PC)

      • New optimism about Russian wheat shipments resuming is adding to the selling pressure in futures this morning
      • Russia authorized the departure of grain vessels for export through the Kerch Strait that links the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov from now until November 15^th
      • 
    • • Once again, the HRS wheat spot rail basis market has recovered off harvest lows
      • Basis the last several years has firmed from harvest lows and the firming in basis tends to wane by early December
      • 
    • • MW 14 pro +180Z to + 210Z in the spot market on Tuesday.  Unchanged to up 10
      • MW 15 pro +160Z to +240Z in the spot market on Tuesday.  Unchanged

       

      Check this out!

      Mitch’s lovely meme above came from a new project I’ve got going called Ag Off the Record.  We’re having some fun with it and I think you will too!

    • 

  • Weather:  (AG)

    Picture of the Day (AG)
    • If this week hasn’t been wet enough for you WCB folks, then good, you’re due for a wet couple weeks
    • The last ~20% of harvest will likely be a very slow 20%
    • Last 3-day rainfall as % of normal
    • 
    • • Wet and hot couple of weeks to come…
      • 1-5-day rainfall forecast as % of normal
      • Wet
      • 
    • • 6-10-day rainfall forecast as % of normal
      • Very wet
    • 
    • • 533% of normal rainfall over this period for corn producing areas…
      • What is not cut soon will likely be left for a good 2-3 weeks
      • 11-15-day rainfall forecast as % of normal
      • Not so wet
    • 
    • • Over this period, the 1-15-day temp forecast is also notably higher than average
      • 8+ degrees above normal for most of the Midwest
    • 
• 

You didn’t need to, but now you know:  (AG)

The Statue of Liberty was dedicated to New York Harbor on October 28^th, 1886. Today marks the 140^thanniversary

Story of “How” and the Methodology of Midday Thoughts… (RM)

As we bring on new readers and new authors, we figured we should visit to how Midday Thoughts… came to be and how we compile the wire.

When I came back to INTL FCStone from Land O’Lakes about 11 years ago, Midday Thoughts… was born.  It was originally supposed to be a quick, light read intended to help a reader BS their way through a lunch meeting if they’d been away from their trading screen in the morning.  The original authors were Billy Kremer, Eric Dubbelde, and myself.  We saw that the trend was changing in the information business.  Long, boring reads about super specific commodity topics were no longer being read.  We needed to be in the infotainment business.  Put some bullet points together and if someone wanted to learn more about a particular topic, they could dig deeper or respond back and we could answer their question.  The biggest thing for us was to make sure that we didn’t take ourselves too seriously, hence why we named it Midday Thoughts… taken from Saturday Night Live’s Deep Thoughts…

The most important part of Midday Thoughts… is that it is a collaboration.  A variety of authors is what makes it interesting and keeps it fresh.  The person you receive it from really doesn’t matter because they’re simply a contributor and are no more important to the quality of Midday Thoughts… than the other initials you see.  You are able to tell who the author of that segment is by their initials on the bold headline.  (RM) in this case.  This constant changing of authors of a particular section keeps a number of perspectives coming at you and also doesn’t allow us as authors to become married to an idea or strategy because those are the kinds of things that get you in trouble as a trader.

Here is your current slate: 

ML          Mark Lucas

ST           Samantha Trcka

PC          Phil Claussen

MK         Matt Kayl

RT           Rachel Todd

MP         Mitch Polzin

AK          Ann Kliszcz

AG         Alex Gokey

RM         Ryan Moe

MC         Megan Cantwell

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